Simandou: Economic and fiscal impact

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 Simandou presents Guinea with an opportunity for economic tranformation.  The first step to ensure it is not missed is to understand its potential direct contribution to the Government's revenues.  A second step is to understand the direct and indirect macroeconomic impacts on the broader economy.

The analysis below presents estimates based on: 

(1) project data published by Rio Tinto in Dec 2023, 

(2) Rio Tinto's financial results for 2024 published in Februrary 2025, 

(3) the open-source IMF's Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries model (Simandou version available below), 

(4) a new General Equilibrium model built by Dr Ismael Fofana for Guinea's economy. 

The results and model below have been shared for comment with the Government of Guinea, the mining companies and other experts. In particular they were presented at:

(a) the EITI's Multi-Stakeholder Group meeting held at the Ministry of Mines in Conakry on 9 April 2025;  

(b) the UN Economic Commission for Africa hosted Global Trade Analysis Project conference in Kigali on 25 June 2025 

(full paper available at https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=7556)

 Any errors remain the responsibility of the author.